435 Seats · 218 Needed for Majority
House of Representatives
District-level probabilistic forecasts derived from each district's voting history and aggregated polls, updated each day new polls are published.
D Majority Prob
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D Projected Seats
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R Majority Prob
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R Projected Seats
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Unconditional forecast — integrates over all possible election-day environments including national polling drift, polling error, and late-breaking events between now and November. See the Scenario Explorer to explore outcomes under a fixed environment.
Majority Probability Over Time
Projected Seat Range Over Time
All House Districts
| District | Incumbent | Rating | D Win Prob | R Win Prob | R avg r2p | 90% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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