100 Seats · 34 Contested in 2026 · Majority at 51
Senate
State-level probabilistic forecasts for all contested 2026 Senate seats. Only the 34 Class II seats are up for election.
D Majority Prob
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D Projected Seats
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R Majority Prob
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R Projected Seats
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Unconditional forecast — integrates over all possible election-day environments including national polling drift, polling error, and late-breaking events between now and November. See the Scenario Explorer to explore outcomes under a fixed environment.
Majority Probability Over Time
Projected Seat Range Over Time
Contested Senate Races — 2026
| State | Incumbent | Rating | D Win Prob | R Win Prob | R Avg r2p | 90% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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